Trump's threatening of Canada has everything to do with the Tar Sands and trying to bully oil suppliers out of the market to keep the oil price from crashing.

Starting an actual conflict with Canada wouldn't really help that longterm for the US, which doesn't mean it won't happen but makes it an accidental eventuality that could happen as an unintended less-likely outcome rather than an intended effect.

Little more to the south. But you're spot on