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U.S. Army secretary warned Ukraine of imminent defeat while pushing initial peace plan (www.nbcnews.com)
submitted 11 months ago by to c/worldnews@lemmy.ml
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[–] -1 points 11 months ago (21 children)

“The message was basically — you are losing,” one of the sources said, “and you need to accept the deal.”

Are they losing?

For the past three years, the news from Russia has been about young men leaving the country because Putin keeps updating the laws around the draft/conscription to feed his war machine.

I'm sure Ukraine is in a similar position, but it doesn't sound like a clearcut win for Russia, either.

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  • [–] [S] 11 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (18 children)

    They are very obviously losing right now. Ukraine is suffering from a critical manpower shortage, the west is not able to provide them with weapons, the economic situation in Ukraine is unravelling, and there's a huge political scandal.

    Meanwhile, the news from Russia for the past three years has absolutely not been that. Even Ukrainian media admits that https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-thousands-of-russians-return-home-boosting-war-economy

    I guess UK regime propaganda is still trying to pretend otherwise though. Given that Russia isn't gang pressing people into service it's not clear what basis the Brits have for their bombastic claims.

    The reality is that Russian economy is stable and growing, it's able to outproduce the west militarily, and its trade is now oriented towards BRICS. Given the stark difference between Russia and Ukraine in terms of available manpower, resources, and economy, it's pretty clear to anybody who can do grade school math that Russia is going to win the war.

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  • [–] -4 points 11 months ago* (14 children)

    Given that Russia isn't gang pressing people into service

    I wouldn't take that as "given".

    And with the new law, draftees are immediately banned from leaving the country.

    Those who fail to show up at a recruitment office promptly will soon face a raft of new restrictions related to banking, selling property and even gaining access to a driver's license.

    Already before the reform, people who refused orders to serve in the military have faced a possible prison sentence of up to 10 years. (NPR)

    As part of their efforts to combat draft evasion, authorities earlier this year launched an electronic register of conscripts to serve online summonses in some Russian regions. They also introduced a series of legal restrictions for those who ignore the summonses, including banning their bank transactions, suspending their driver’s licenses and blocking foreign travel. (AP)

    I quoted the NPR and AP articles, since you seem allergic to reporting from the UK.

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  • [–] [S] 7 points 11 months ago* (13 children)

    I wouldn’t take that as “given”.

    There is zero evidence for that being true. Meanwhile, the fact that it's happening in Ukraine is very well documented https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-recruitment-army/

    I quoted the NPR and AP articles, since you seem allergic to reporting from the UK.

    You're confusing the regular draft for the reserves that Russia has had since the soviet times with the war draft here. There was exactly a single time that there was a call up back in 2022.

    Finally, you only have to consider the size difference in overall population. Even if there was the same rate of desertion on both sides, then Ukraine would still lose.

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  • [–] -2 points 11 months ago* (12 children)

    Your responses have nothing to do with the parts of my comment that you're quoting.

    In the first quote (I wouldn’t take that as “given”) I was responding to your claim that Russia wasn't press-ganging citizens into service. I then quoted two articles which themselves cited Russian sources (I'm pretty sure the State Duma is Russian) that said the Russian government was changing the draft rules and imposing severe penalties on people attempting to avoid the draft.

    The second quote was pretty straightforward (I quoted the NPR and AP articles, since you seem allergic to reporting from the UK.), so I don't know how you went from that to "confusing regular draft for reserves", but I'll respond to that, too.

    I'm not confusing the regular draft for reserves. Both sources explicitly use the terms "draft" and "conscript" to describe the people I'm talking about.

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  • [–] [S] 8 points 11 months ago (11 children)

    And I directly addressed your claim explaining that there is no evidence of gang pressing happening in Russia, and that you were referring to the regular reserves draft that's been happening long before the war.

    I’m not confusing the regular draft for reserves. Both sources explicitly use the terms “draft” and “conscript” to describe the people I’m talking about.

    Yes, you are absolutely confusing the draft with the call up to the front line. I'm also guessing that you didn't actually read the article you linked because its says the same thing I'm saying:

    The bill’s authors say the measure is intended to ease pressure on military conscription offices and streamline their activities, which includes performing the physicals and assigning conscripts to various military branches.

    Even though the bill will make conscription a year-round process, it stipulates that conscripts will enter military service only during a few spring and summer months as before.

    All Russian men aged 18-30 currently are obliged to serve in the military for one year, although many avoid the draft by using deferments granted to students, those with chronic illnesses, and for other reasons.

    Even your own source is admitting that there is no increase in conscription happening.

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  • [–] 9 points 11 months ago (1 child)

    I’m also guessing that you didn’t actually read the article you linked because its says the same thing I’m saying:

    Articles aren't for reading, they're for headline skimming so you can look like you have sources. If they fail, there's always another one to try, you can even pretend that means evidence is overwhelming!

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  • [–] -2 points 11 months ago (8 children)

    You keep changing the argument you claim I'm making.

    Here's the comment, as a reminder.

    I called into question your claim that press ganging (coercion into military service) wasn't happening, by citing sources that the Russian government was changing the rules of the draft and imposing severe penalties on people who tried to avoid it.

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  • [–] [S] 9 points 11 months ago (7 children)

    The sources you cited literally support what I said:

    Even though the bill will make conscription a year-round process, it stipulates that conscripts will enter military service only during a few spring and summer months as before.

    Do you even understand what the term press ganging means?

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  • [+] -6 points 11 months ago (6 children)

    You've tried to move the goalposts twice now, by:

    • Claiming my argument is about a "call up to the front line". (I've said draft/conscription since the beginning.)
    • Claiming my argument is that an increase in conscription is happening. (I implied press-ganging was happening, and said nothing about a change in the amount of conscription happening.)

    I am and have been ignoring anything you threw out that tried to weasel away from the central argument:

    The Russian government is coercing (which is how press-ganging is used to mean in normal conversations; this is not an academic conference) people into military service.

    Conscription/the draft already technically meets that definition, but piling on prison sentences, suspending drivers licences, banning leaving the country, and restricting bank transactions all make it clear that Russian men are being coerced into military service.

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  • [–] [S] 7 points 11 months ago (5 children)

    I have not moved the goalposts. My position has been perfectly consistent. You are misusing a loaded term to fabricate a narrative.

    Let's be crystal clear since you are struggling with the definition. Press ganging is not a synonym for conscription. It refers to the illegal and forcible impressment of individuals into military service. What that looks like is kidnapping people from streets or their homes outside of any legal framework. That's what you implied is happening in Russia, and it is a blatant falsehood.

    What you are describing in Russia is the legal process of conscription, which includes standard penalties for evasion. These penalties like fines, license suspensions, and travel bans are common consequences for dodging a mandatory draft in many nations, including many US allies. To call this press ganging is deliberate sensationalism.

    Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the very phenomenon you mistakenly accuse Russia of is a well documented reality. There have been numerous verified reports of recruiters literally grabbing men off the street and from public transport to forcibly conscript them, often without any paperwork or due process. That is what actual press-ganging looks like. It is happening there, not in Russia.

    Your argument tries to blur the line between a legal state run conscription system and outright criminal abduction. They are not the same. The goalposts have not moved. You are just trying to score a point on a field that does not exist in reality. The facts are clear, and your conflation of them is intellectually dishonest.

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  • [+] -7 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (4 children)

    That's three times now. We'll add:

    • Claiming I'm trying to "fabricate a narrative" as if there's some massive conspiracy.

    to the list.

    Do you seriously think I'm some part of some government operation to "weave a story"?

    I'm a rando on the internet who thinks Russia is coercing men who don't want to be in a war to become soldiers.

    Whether they corner them with infrastructural tactics or send armed men in unmarked vans to kidnap them off the street is immaterial.

    Whether these tactics are practiced by Russia or by "many nations, including US allies" is immaterial.

    It would be press-ganging and coercion if Ukraine did the same thing. It's press-ganging and coercion if the United States does it.

    Standing on ceremony behind a dictionary definition and whether government says it's legal is such a weird stance to take when the issue is these people don't want to serve in the military, and the government is coercing them into it.

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  • [–] [S] 8 points 11 months ago* (2 children)

    The only person inventing massive conspiracies in this conversation is you. Now you can add straw man arguments to the growing list of nonsense you are producing.

    I think you are nothing more than a troll who argues for the sake of it, without a single honest bone in your body. You are the epitome of a reddit debate bro, substituting sophistry for genuine argument in a pathetic attempt to score imaginary points. You are very transparent.

    You keep trying to conflate two entirely separate issues, a sad attempt at an argument I have already dismantled in detail. You have brought forward nothing new and you're just regurgitating the same old drivel here. Take the L and move on.

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  • [+] -8 points 11 months ago (1 child)

    I think you are nothing more than a troll who argues for the sake of it, without a single honest bone in your body. You are the epitome of a reddit debate bro

    You won't or can't address my argument above, so you switch to personal attacks.

    You introduced the word "press-gang" and tried to turn this into an argument about the dictionary definition of the word.

    You also tried to retroactively rewrite my argument. (You're not talking about the draft, you're talking about the reserves. You're not talking about the draft, you're talking about "calling up to the front line.")

    And you claim that I'm trolling?

    My position has been that Russia has been coercing citizens into military service and I've been consistent on that point.

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  • [–] [S] 5 points 11 months ago

    I literally addressed your 'argument' in detail, and you just continued to double down on your bullshit. You're a troll, and an artless one at that. You're not fooling anybody here.

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  • [+] -6 points 11 months ago (2 children)

    Lol nice try with the Russian propaganda. The only thing growing in Russia is the amount of debt and their death toll.

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  • [–] [S] 10 points 11 months ago*

    Ah yes, Russian propaganda as reported by mainstream western media. The BBC admits that all the western economies are doing worse, meanwhile European propagandists acknowledge that Russia can fight on for years:

    Russia is facing a new wave of US and EU sanctions while its internal economy is nearing recession, but all this is not enough to curb its capacity to fund the war in Ukraine, according to experts.

    Finally, Russian debt to GDP is far lower than in the west.

    Nice try with your thought terminating cliche though.

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  • [–] 4 points 11 months ago

    Many articles about Ukrainian draft dodgers these days too. And Ukrainian conscription ages going wider. Grunts on both sides don't feel like fighting a war for others. But Ukraine has less manpower overall and thus will run out sooner.

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