This is video editing and video forensics.
Ok, let’s ignore that your expertise to post this, was feeding this video through an algorithmic AI detector.
To understand the tree leaves in the blur above his head, do this: watch video from the very start on normal speed with audio. Don’t look at Trump or his hands. Watch the erratic pattern of the leaf movement in the window at the location where the “suspicious” blur will happen at 0:19. Notice how it moves a little when there a slight breeze and then not at all when the wind dies down.
Notice the one time this tree blur morph happens is exactly at the same time of the hands and face/mouth anomaly and when he goes “Charlie was a … patriot”.
Sometimes it’s more expert-like to say you can’t say for sure, than being a keyboard warrior who declares absolutisms in the hunt for ego votes. It is most likely wind, based on the evidence I’ve seen, but other things like light or refractions can’t be excluded. That all does not make it AI.
A cross dissolve will work that way if it is dissolving between two identical frames.
Would you change your post title to remove the absolutism from it and turn it into a (sensationalist) question or are you going to leave it up?