If I knew you, I would bet money on it. Ain’t gonna happen.

Everybody will bet money on mass nuclear war not happening, it would be illogical not to? It is a "win-win" kind of bet, either you are right or it doesn't matter and what you bet is meaningless.

I don't think the use of nuclear weapons is likely per say, what worries me is the incentive structure and the rapidly deteriorating lack of ability for leaders and international structures of power to protect the decency of humanity when it is easily within their material capability to do so... In my lifetime we have objectively never been closer to the use of nuclear weapons, which doesn't mean I am sure they will be used.

Do you not worry about hurricanes or other infrequent but catastrophic events? I feel like you are trying to flatten this into I am saying the sky is falling in an absurd way and I am not, I am pointing out something we should all take seriously as an unlikely but extremely devastating possibility.

Yes, it wouldn't make logical sense for it to happen necessarily, but you can't claim that is the same thing as saying it won't happen.

edit One last point, not only are we closer to the possibility of nuclear weapons being used than we have been in decades, but the nuclear powers of the world are making it abundantly clear through war and genocide that having nuclear weapons is the only way to deal on an equal footing with them... which may unfortunately be true but also the entire point of having a proactive conversation about nuclear proliferation is that the easy answer has always been to just build more nuclear weapons than your "enemy", the problem isn't that the strategy doesn't work it is that it ends up with their being an unfathomable number of nuclear weapons... so yes we should absolutely take this shit seriously.