If Current Trends Continue, Linux Will be a Dominant OS in ~10 Yearslogicalerzor.codeberg.page/blo#Linux @linux

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[–] 33 points 6 months ago (2 children)

There really just isn't enough data here to make those conclusions.

For example, here's the Steam survey data plotted without the added estimated graph lines.

image

Mostly flat, slow trend upwards, slightly sharper increase more recently.

That could flatline again, curve back down, grow way slower, grow way faster, etc. There's just not enough data there to predict the next 4X as long amount of time anywhere close to accurately.

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  • [–] 14 points 6 months ago

    Yep. People don't understand that data analysis and social anthropology don't pair well together. If they did, life would be a lot simpler because crystal ball. As it is, this data gives zero insight into what tech, society, and events will do in the upcoming decade. All variables are entirely unpredictable and history shows us time and time again that only a fool would try factor or predict them.

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