Warnings of Iran Invasion Grow as US to Send Up to 5,000 Marines, Sailors to Middle East

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[–] 118 points 7 months ago (60 children)

The window of opportunity to get out of this situation in the USA is closing fast, and if it's not seized soon, this mess is going to last decades, assuming a lot of deaths and an absurd amount of money that the country no longer has like it did decades ago. The shit is going to fall on everyone.

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  • [–] 36 points 7 months ago (4 children)

    I'm pretty sure the window is already closed. This is our second war with Iran in under a year. Both of which were started by the US/Israel; while we were actively negotiating with Iran. After the first war, we bragged about how the negotiation was a genius move by us to catch Iran with a surprise attack. The last time we had a major treaty with Iran, we unilaterally tore it up; and none of the other signatories stepped up to try and make Iran whole.

    The 12 day war ended when we decided to end it. Iran agreed because no one likes getting bombed, and they assumed we had done all we had the stomach to do. However, this type of stop-and-go conflict massively favors the US. Iran's strength lies in a sustained war of attrition. Deplete our air defense systems faster than we can resupply them. Disrupt the oil market long enough to cause global shortages. Draw us into a war against an insurgency. None of this is effective if they let us decide when the conflict pauses.

    Their actions show this. Mining the straight of Hormuz and bombing oil fields are not the type of action you take for a conflict you don't plan on lasting. Appoint the son of the leader we assisinated as your new leader. Those are decisions that will take months to reverse.

    Also, I should mention that the current leader of Iran just had his family killed by us. And Iran was just in the middle of an internal political crisis that conveniently goes away in the face of an external one.

    I don't see how we get Iran to agree to end the war without us offering some major concessions.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago* (2 children)

    this type of stop-and-go conflict massively favors the US

    good analysis, but this is false, because Iranian missile/drone production is higher than US's, and so it recovers faster than US. JDAM production capacity is high though, even if 2026 budget is only for 2300, and are dependent on rare earths. 2026 budget cost is $80k/unit.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    The consumable on the US side is interceptors, not missiles. Iran's ability to land hits goes up dramatically once we are out of them.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago*

    JDAMs are plane launched "dumb bombs" with extra guidance and fin system added on to be more precise. Iran doesn't have much defensive systems against the planes, and the bombs themselves are generally not intercepted. Iran does produce more offensive missiles than US combined offensive and defensive missiles, in addition to intensive drone manufacturing by Iran.

    Just as there was a 20:1 kill ratio in favour of US in Vietnam as a US metric for how awesome everything was going for the US, generaly, every hit on US allies and Israel counts as a cost that was never supposed to happen. Contrary to Pentagon propaganda about fewer Iran missile launches every day, damaging strikes seem to be steady or increasing.

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  • [–] 46 points 7 months ago (15 children)

    I foresee this escalating and getting worse, leading to some catastrophic nonsense that puts our species to shame in only a matter of months.

    We’re running out of helium, the strategic oil reserves are at most 20% of what’s needed, and now that wells are capped it’s to take months to get back.

    As this continues Trump will get madder, dementia-ier, and try and escalate more.

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  • [–] 11 points 7 months ago (5 children)

    We aren't running out of Helium. The date at which a specific reservoir gets sold is coming closer.

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  • [–] 10 points 7 months ago* (3 children)

    Technically we are. We won't be out in our lifetimes, to my knowledge, but we aren't making more helium. Once its gone, its gone. So, it is running out, but on what time scale?

    When will the human race start slowing down? Its eventually just going to get crazy expensive and only used when vital. And we're filling party balloons with it.

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  • [–] 28 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    If Iran had nukes none of this would be happening.

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago

    Would it be comical? If they had nukes and were backed into a corner they would likely use them.

    In fact we can infer from US/Israel's willingness to attack now that their intelligence must be telling them that they do not have nukes.

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    The odds of Trump trying to nuke someone is higher than 0%. My nation has contracted rabies. 😰

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago

    Their only strategy is to escalate and try to look stronger.

    Now, the US military is not something to scoff at, but they’ll eventually end up escalating to nukes and threats of nukes, because there’s no way to win.

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    What does running out of helium mean though? Bush auctioned off the helium supply for no good reason, they get it from like natural gas in Texas, but also now like South Africa or something.

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  • [–] 12 points 7 months ago (34 children)

    I am shocked that america isn't 24/7 protests.

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  • [–] 23 points 7 months ago* (8 children)

    There's shitloads of protests going on over the matter, actually, but much like the protests against all the rest of Trump's bullshit and especially ICE, you wouldn't catch the media covering any of them, despite them being nigh-constant.

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  • [–] 6 points 7 months ago (7 children)

    Show me. Why isn't lemmy full of protests?

    They can stop many news outlets, but not all of them. Not all social media platforms.

    The protests are small and insignificant.

    They should be massive. Like the trucker convoy in Canada was.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago (4 children)

    Oh, so you can dish it out but can't take it when someone else handwaves away your effort?

    I'm a trans woman living in the US. I absolutely know what I'm talking about. I've been keeping up with politics since I was a pre-teen just so I could know what rights of mine were being stripped away in which states. I'm illegal in 41+ countries in the world and 20 states in my own country.

    Keep thumping your chest about your little Sunday drive while people are chasing ICE agents out of their neighborhoods.

    But good to know this man never led a "real protest."

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago (3 children)

    You definitely dont know anything about the trucker convoy, if you think anything similar has happened in the US during the Trump administration. I dont give a shit what your gender is.

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (1 child)

    Anti-vaxxer insurrectionists protesting COVID regulations and "personal freedom" by attempting to shut down the government? Yeah, we had that. It's called Jan 6th. We've also had our own series of MAGA convoys over the years. We call them Y'All Qaeda. I don't know why this is your golden idol of what protesting should be.

    And you should give a shit that I'm a minority who has watched Canada be roughly 5 to 10 years behind the US in their own war on science and education since 2001. Trump may be the signpost that actually turns the Canadian slide into MAGA conservatism around, there was some evidence of them backtracking on those stances during his last term, but only time will tell.

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

    Go and research it first. Then come back and tell me why it's different instead of running your confidently incorrect mouth.

    I dont give a shit that you're a minority. It is irrelevant and makes no difference. I dont even know why you'd mention it. Why am I supposed to care what your gender is?

    I'm giving you a warning. Im not interested in arguments. If you dont change your tone with me on your next message, you will not hear from me again, because i will have just blocked you.

    I don't tolerate trolls, no matter what their gender is.

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  • [–] 7 points 7 months ago (5 children)

    Americans have a unique way of protesting enshrined in the constitution. They aren't using it

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  • [–] 7 points 7 months ago* (4 children)

    I have been able to talk some of my neighbors into at least saying that we'll stand together should ICE comes. But getting them to cross state lines? Or even do a Rent/Mortgage strike is just too many steps too far for most of them. Especially when take into account that it's days of travel, and you still need money for food and gas. Also our families needs food, shelter, and so on.

    Surviving even at selfish costs, is unfortunately the Las Vegan way.

    I at the very least thought a Rent/Mortgage strike would appeal to those selfish and apathetic, but somehow a strike that keeps your resources in your pocket is less liked than a General Strike that you have build resources for ahead of time. And arguing that we should encourage our homeless population to just take up homes that are sitting empty due to corps buying up houses for renting out was.... well let's just say I have to wait until people are more fed up before I can bring up that particular strategy again.

    Hell getting people to go armed to protests has been met with hard no's even after I point out how different police act when people are armed. And that all you need to do is look at the Bundy Ranch standoff to see how much different police treat those that are armed. (The police at the time came in unarmed, and without body armor to negotiate just so they wouldn't set off the snipers).

    So you want to know why we're not using the unique way of protesting? Logistics, survival, and because most Americans prefer to be livestock for the Oligarchs than to actually be wolves fighting for our liberty, and will make every excuse to just wait for the slaughter.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    Armed protests don't always end well. Michigan in the 00's had a gay libertarian host a legalization of Marijuana petition to get the issue on the ballot, at his Rainbow ranch in like battle creek or something. Police fucked with them and the Michigan Militia showed up to defend them. State police shot the owner of the ranch with a sniper for no good reason after a bit.

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago*

    Your argument doesn't hold much water when the alternative currently is letting them haul you and yours to a concentration camp, and are already killing Americans in the street at unarmed protests. Context and the amount of guns being the big difference, as I could not find any evidence that the Michigan Militia was involved. Only mention of them is that they provided unarmed security for the farm before the conflict arose but we're not present for the actual standoff.

    So I'm going to need a source backing up your claims.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago (1 child)

    I think that if the United States we know are replaced, we will need the new Constitution to enshrine UBI. Part of that should be free fuel, food, and lodgings. By providing such things, it will be much easier for people to protest. Right now, you have to risk losing everything if you dare wander off the corporate reservations.

    No work? No agency. Have work? no agency.

    We must work towards ensuring agency for every single person.

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago

    I've been thinking the exact same things. A New Constitution is what is required. Our Founding Fathers always planned for such events, and we were expected to rewrite The Constitution as needed, including upto building completely from new.

    IMO, a government should only exist in service to the people, and when it fails at that service it needs to be reformed.

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  • [–] 6 points 7 months ago (2 children)

    Most Americans are still not personally affected.

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  • [–] 5 points 7 months ago

    All the ones that know what's happening are aware they are losing their freedom.

    Im not bothered by maga or ignorant people not doing anything.

    Its all the people that know what is happening. That think posting "release the Epstein files" will help. It would if they did it on congress' front lawn, but not in their echo chambers.

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  • [+] 1 point 7 months ago (14 children)
  • [–] 9 points 7 months ago (8 children)

    Fuck off with that. Yes we are.

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  • [–] 4 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

    It absolutely did not, by such wide margin you're just straight up trying to start shit. If we count all the votes trump got as legit (which is increasingly looking like complete bullshit), even then he barely got 33% of the eligible vote.

    He lost the popular vote, even with absolutely COLOSSAL amounts of voter disenfranchisement preventing Democratic voters from even voting in the first place, and a shitload of their votes being invalidated or even just outright thrown away, and we still don't know how much damage Musk did with his control over the polling machines.

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (3 children)

    What are you, a fed? Fuck off.

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  • [–] 1 point 7 months ago (2 children)

    Sorry for expecting people who pretend to care about the murderous regime running their country to do something about it.

    Expect to get painted with the same brush if you don't even bother to be different from them.

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  • I'm a trans woman in the US, a group who the government had already been stealing official documents from since before Trump was even officially in office and who states have been banning from public life, creating lists of, and trying to deny medical care to for years. We've been saying for a decade that conservatives would love nothing more than to round us all up and put us in camps. Guess what conservatives have expressed their desire to do?

    Come at me again and tell me I'm not doing anything about my government when you don't know the first thing about me.

    You sir, are a fucking moron and transphobic to boot. Go be racist somewhere else.

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  • [–] 6 points 7 months ago* (4 children)

    Yes we are. It's also ordered by Israel. They have been stealing our money for ages.

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  • [–] 3 points 7 months ago* (2 children)

    They have a lobbyist organization that controls our gov. AIPAC. Basically, give money to legislators so that they send funding to your country. I assume there is only one answer that makes them not a Mossad target. Anyways, Americans have been sick of war since before I was born. Literally no side of politics agrees with aid to Israel. There are a few crazies that do, but even most Trumpers here are not on board with it. I'm in the deep red South and even here Republicans have complained about Israel since I was a kid. Obviously liberals hate giving aid to Israel, but the Dems politicians are bought by the time they run for office. Even Kamala supported Israel. It's a mess. So if we have taxation and no representation, that's stealing.

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  • [–] 2 points 7 months ago

    It didn't have the money then, either. It just printed it and ballooned the national debt. I'm sure the global oligarch class will be happy to buy more US treasury bonds while the congress raises the debt ceiling again.

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