I think you're mistaking improvements in tooling as improvements in the LLMs. LLMs are plateauing. The idea of exponential growth is an illusion. We took 20+ year old technology, geared it toward text (the LLM), and trained it on the entire Internet. Then, it's popularity grew exponentially.

This is the hype narrative that Altman, Dario, Jensen, etc. push. They are trying to convince everyone that what we have is the Model T Ford of AI. Just imagine where we'll be in 6 months!