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Chinese social media hails Trump's Maduro move as Taiwan template (archive.is)
submitted 10 months ago by to c/world@lemmy.world
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[–] 26 points 10 months ago* (11 children)

Taiwan will scuttle their microchip fabs before letting China take over. Unless China have infiltrated and taken over the fabs and secured them from destruction, there's far less economic value in invading Taiwan.

Chinas chip fabrication is advancing quickly. So assuming Taiwan remains strong and doesn't get infiltrated, we won't see an invasion until China is confident it doesn't need Taiwanese chips for its own technology. Then, it'll just be about politics and having more of the coast line and trade routes secured, not the fabs.

I reckon there's at least a few more years before they will take Taiwan by force. Time for international relationships to change for the better...

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  • [–] 5 points 10 months ago

    The talent will still be there. And the US will lose their supply of chips that make them what they are today. The issue was that the people would just leave and come to the US if they invaded. But now that America is a dictatorship what would be the point? They are screwed either way so now they will probably just make good chips for China.

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  • [–] 5 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    Taiwan will scuttle their microchip fabs before letting China take over. Unless China have infiltrated and taken over the fabs and secured them from destruction, there's far less economic value in invading Taiwan.

    It looks like China is only a couple years away from building completely in-country fabs competitive with Taiwan. If that's the case, then Taiwan using the economic value of their microchip fabs as a defense may very soon come to an end.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/

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  • [–] 6 points 10 months ago

    The biggest defense for Taiwan is the fact that it's an island. I don't thing that's going to change any time soon.

    Ukraine's Sea Baby drones have been remarkably effective in the Black Sea. I don't see why they wouldn't be effective in the Taiwan Straight and I feel like Taiwan has the capability of mass producing similar drone boats.

    Yes China has massive troop counts, but it doesn't amount to much if those numbers can't get across the Strait.

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  • [–] 9 points 10 months ago (6 children)

    So you're telling me that China can stop US defence production by doing this one little trick? 🤔

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  • [–] 10 points 10 months ago (5 children)

    Unlike for consumer applications, military systems don't need cutting edge 2nm processes. Most military systems use 28nm - 90nm processes, which are more reliable, and which the US can comfortably supply domestically.

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  • [–] 5 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (2 children)

    Interesting. Didn't think of the military applications. I think both countries care about cutting edge technology markets in general, and not creating economic chaos by shutting down TSMC. But once TSMC in Taiwan itself is no longer essential, all bets are off. Given both US and China want to get away from relying on TSMC, it's only a matter of time.

    With the US currently only caring about money and power, all interest in Taiwan's defence will evaporate. I hope for Taiwan's sake politics change before that day comes.

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  • [–] 1 point 10 months ago (1 child)

    Most military systems use 28nm - 90nm processes, which are more reliable, and which the US can comfortably supply domestically.

    Not included: the rare-earth minerals, which are a market almost entirely cornered by the same China. And facilities to process those same rare earth minerals, which are impossible to simply build overnight.

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