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Quantum Attacks on encryption will probably be feasible by 2030 (www.youtube.com)
submitted 1 year ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
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DEF CON 33 - Post Quantum Panic: When Will the Cracking Begin, & Can We Detect it? - K Karagiannis

Due to recently published algorithmic improvements (1399 qubits @ 2048 bit key length for Shor's) and leaps being made in quantum computing hardware (IBM Starling @ 200 logical qubits in 2029, and IBM Blue Jay @ 2000 logical quibits from 2033 and on), encryption is in danger of State-sponsored and high end-criminal attacks as soon as 2030. Particularly susceptible are crypto-currencies like Bitcoin, which rely on the Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem (ECDLP) and are attackable by Shor's factoring capability on a predictably feasible quantum computer.

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[–] 2 points 1 year ago

IonQ's timeline doesn't look realistic. Perhaps IBM's is; idk anything about this space. I see it's been 6 years since quantum advantage has been demonstrated, but nothing useful has been done yet. Hard to speculate on timelines when the tech is still in its infancy.

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