Jiggle_Physics comments on Concealed Handguns Create a Climate of Fear, Gun Industry Research Reveals

[–] Jiggle_Physics@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 year ago (11 children)

This conversation is not that it NEVER happens, it is addressing why the stats where someone defends themselves with a gun are so low. In practice, defending yourself from armed thieves just gets you killed, or badly injured, the vast majority of the time. If that person had a gun, was standing out initial grabbing distance, and you hadn't pulled your gun yet, you going to touch that grip would have likely just gotten you shot, and left bleeding in that parking lot, as the person ran off.

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[–] ArcaneSlime@lemmy.dbzer0.com 0 points 1 year ago* (10 children)

Debatable. Define "low" and define what we're counting as defensive use of a firearm.

The lowest estimate for Defensive Gun Use (hereafter referred to as DGU) we have is 100k/yr, done by Harvard and only using verifiable police reports where the defender killed the attacker. That entirely discounts situations like mine, in which the attacker was scared off by the mere presence of a firearm without a shot being fired. 100k/yr is still more than our gun deaths/yr, so if that's "low" then our gun deaths incl homicide, accidents, and suicide are too. And even if it is low, I bet the individuals in question are happy to have had it when they did need it and could use it.

The other commonly cited estimate is by Gary Kleck and John Lott, and used to be on the CDC's website (not sure if still is, but it can be found.) They estimated between 500k and 3mil DGU/yr, and includes situations like mine. Whether or not you want to discount them, the numbers are still higher than I'd call "low."

Of course drawing from the drop is bad practice, nobody advises it, but you positioning it as a guarantee is clearly not the case at least 100k times/yr. In real reality, defensive gun use happens all the time.

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[–] Jiggle_Physics@sh.itjust.works 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (9 children)

Daniel Webster SC.D.; Jens Ludwig Ph.D. 2000 is a paper just dismantling the methodology, and data, behind the Kleck-Lott study. There are, apparently, a lot of studies picking this one apart, but this is the one I was familiar with before this. Basically they manufactured their results to get the conclusion they wanted. Even the best studies acknowledge from suffering from things like the telescoping effect, significantly. With Kleck and Lott, they often make arguments even their own study refutes, but they are hoping most people never actually read it, especially people who have training on reading academic papers. This article has a pretty good, bullet point style, break down of how they report what their study says vs what it says, and some of the underlying issues of it, and other studies of it's type. Here is a paper discussing how this data is collected, confirmed, and reported, and why things like the National Crime Victimization Survey, always come up so much lower (recently mid 80k range). Basically a study on methodology in this line of research.

The Harvard number you cite comes from studies that estimate 60-120k DGU's per year. They also caution that going to the higher end requires some very loose interpretation, and inclusion, of data. Their research leads them to the conclusion that MOST reported DGU's stem from escalating fights, from arguments, between two people, and not from someone targeted to be a victim, like a robbery, etc., defending themselves. The majority of DGU's in home held weapons are used to intimidate family, and close friends, rather than third party assailants, and the defenses here are super varied, and often make the person reporting the DGU is the criminal actor. Here is what Harvard has to say about the subject.

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[–] ArcaneSlime@lemmy.dbzer0.com 0 points 1 year ago (8 children)

Again no matter which you choose to go by, it's hard for me to call it "low." I suppose to a point that's subjective, but even your lowest number, 60k, is on par with our total gun deaths/yr including accidents, homicides, and suicides. So, if it's low than that's low too.

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[–] Jiggle_Physics@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 year ago (7 children)

You gloss over the context of where most of that number comes from. It doesn't come defending yourself against some third party who has targeted you for some form of victimization. It comes from people reporting how they used their gun to intimidate someone who they were arguing with, as defending themselves with a gun. Mostly people close to them. Which normal people don't actually consider a valid reason to say they defended themselves from crime.

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[–] ArcaneSlime@lemmy.dbzer0.com 0 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (6 children)

I mean most kidnappings are from family or friends, not strangers. Most rapes are from family and friends, not strangers. It's not outside of the realm of possibility to actually have to defend yourself against family or friends. In fact if it follows the trend it'd be more likely than having to defend yourself from strangers. Hell my friend's house was broken into and he was pistol whipped by a masked dude, and everyone in the house said the same thing, "It was [Name Redacted], I would recognize that voice anywhere." He had been our friend, y'know, until the armed home invasion. None of us had a gun at the time though unfortunatly, but had they one and it was used, it would have been used to defend against said "friend." Not a stranger, a "friend." Another friend in that same neighborhood pulled up to yet another mutual friend to (admittedly) sell him 2oz of weed, and that mutual friend stabbed him. That's two people who were supposedly our "friends." The one that happened to me at walmart was a stranger, but as the data and my empirical evidence suggest, actually having to defend yourself from someone you know is more common, so, yeah I'm not surprised by that and never argued the opposite. My argument was that regardless of one's familiarity with the attacker, DGU happens at a higher rate than "low."

(Home invader did time in prison for robbing a gas station with a shotgun after this. Idk if he's out now or what, that was the last I heard of him. No clue what became of stabby either, but stabee is doing fine now, took up a trade.)

Duh "most DGU stems from escalating arguments," if an argument gets heated enough that someone needs to defend themselves however, they still need to defend themselves. Sure "letting the argument get to the point where uncle Steve pulls a knife" is "socially undesirable," but if uncle Steve pulls a knife, he's still pulled a knife. Whether or not you find it "socially undesirable," if it happens then it happens. Not everything that takes place on this earth is "socially desirable." While you should take steps to deescalate the situation, those don't always work, maybe Steve likes meth (which is also socially undesirable, yet prevalent), whatever the reason, if they don't work and Steve pulls the knife, as far as I'm concerned it's more socially undesirable for me to be stabbed, uncle or not.

Using a gun to intimidate people you're arguing with is called a crime, not defensive gun use. I'd be curious to know if the judges they questioned as to the legality were in the jurisdictions in which the DGU took place, or were they in another location with other requirements like a duty to retreat that doesn't exist everywhere in the states. A judge in WI or NJ could have a different opinion on the same case than a judge from MO or OK, what's legal in the latter is not in the former.

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[–] Jiggle_Physics@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 year ago (5 children)

It is called a crime, and if you read further into what harvard talks about this.

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[–] ArcaneSlime@lemmy.dbzer0.com 0 points 1 year ago (4 children)

We read a random sample of defensive gun use news reports for the Gun Violence Archive in 2019. We created a typology of 13 categories, including escalating arguments, drug-related, gang-like, romantic disputes, store robberies, unoccupied vehicle theft, unarmed burglaries, and home invasions.

See the more I read the more I question, they don't seem to even understand the threshold for legal use of deadly force, most of these would be technically illegal, even for some where the defense itself was above board.

If you're the one escalating, that is illegal. Can't legally have guns and drugs at the same time. Gang activity often involves crime while not being illegal itself. Romantic disputes would be legal if the partner immanently threatens your life, then good, otherwise illegal to use gun. Store robberies is above board, as long as they're armed. Using deadly force to protect against unoccupied vehicle theft is illegal, against armed carjacking is legal. Unarmed burglaries would be illegal, you're allowed to use normal force (mace or fists) not deadly force. Home invasions is legal, IF you're in a state with castle doctrine, if you're in a state with a Duty To Retreat law, you're required to surrender the house if possible.

Their methodology here, to include things that are straight up crimes as "defense," is questionable. Furthermore they seem to be using the same methodology questioned in the Kleck and Lott numbers, phone surveys, but when they do it it's ok:

We analyzed data from a telephone survey of 5,800 California adolescents aged 12-17 years, which asked questions about gun threats against and self-defense gun use by these young people.

So we'll just ignore that people 12-17 can't legally buy nor carry a gun which would undeniably skew the numbers this way anyway (their parents can buy them one, they still can't carry, and just how common do you think it is for parents to buy their kids guns?) The Kleck and Lott study's voracity is called into question due to the self reported and unverifiable nature of the phone survey, basically "people could be lying." Meanwhile 12-17yos always tell the truth? Horse hockey.

Using data from a national random-digit-dial telephone survey conducted under the direction of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center, we investigated how and when guns are used in the home. We found that guns in the home are used more often to frighten intimates than to thwart crime;

And "intimates" never lie either.

other weapons are far more commonly used against intruders than are guns.

Only what like 45% of people even own guns? And of those that do a significant portion just have a shotgun in a safe for hunting. DUH, more people use "what they have." Bet the guy defending himself with a baseball bat wouldn't have turned his nose up at the AR15 beside it, given the opportunity.

This study is no better than the Kleck and Lott study, and 60k is still more than "low."

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